2005 Tour de France - Stage 16

Australia?s Cadel Evans (Davitamon-Lotto) began today?s 16^th stage of the 2005 Tour de France in 11^th place in the overall standings, 12.57 down to yellow jersey wearer Lance Armstrong.

Not bad.  In fact, pretty good.

But Evans wasn?t satisfied.  He attacked early and, with three other confederates, including the eventual stage winner Oscar Pereiro (Phonak), persisted to the finish at Pau.

Evans?s attack was bold ? and effective; it vaulted him into 7^th place overall, 9:29 behind Armstrong.

Indeed, his escape was a model that Armstrong?s higher-placed adversaries might want to emulate.  Too bad there are a rapidly diminishing number of opportunities to do so.

Jan Ullrich made a few moves but none were sustained.  Ivan Basso stayed mostly quiet.

Only Alexandre Vinokourov continued to animate the peloton and, although his thrusts went largely unsupported by his T-Mobile team-mates (or anyone else), he now lies a respectable (if disappointing) 9:38 down in 8th place.

Denmark?s Michael Rasmussen, now virtually assured of taking the King of the Mountains jersey, remained no.3, 3:09 behind Armstrong.

Can he keep Jan Ullrich, now in 4^th spot at 5:58, at bay? 

Next Saturday?s 55-km time trial at St. Etienne now appears to be the stage that will decide the no.3 podium spot.  Does Rasmussen have enough of a lead?  Should he try to increase it before the time trial, perhaps on the hilly Stage 18 (Albi-Mende)?

Ullrich, a superior time-trialler (as opposed to a definitely inferior Rasmussen), has the advantage.  But Rasmussen will battle.  He came to this year?s Tour hoping to win the climbing title and take a stage win.  He has accomplished both goals.  But now a podium spot beckons.  A great incentive.

And Armstrong?  He now appears invulnerable, barring the unforeseen.  He seems to be spending his final days as a competitive cyclist basking in a warm glow of adulation ? and playing it safe.  

Who can blame him?

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